by Klaas Knot

What was on our minds when we last met in December 2022? At that time, we had just seen the sharpest tightening of financial conditions since the 2008 global financial crisis. We had concerns about elevated debt levels and interconnectedness between banks and non-bank financial intermediaries amid high inflation and a deteriorating growth outlook. In this context, I emphasized that financial stability could not be taken for granted. So where are we today? Well, these concerns have not vanished; they continue to shape large parts of the FSB’s work. While inflation has somewhat eased, there is still some uncertainty about the persistence of inflation. What’s more, market valuations remain elevated. The tight spreads and low volatility in corporate bond markets are hard to square with rising defaults and upcoming higher refinancing costs. Similarly, equity valuations appear stretched.
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by Daoud Abdel Hadi

When AI entered the mainstream, it instilled a sense of panic in many people. It was seen as a threat that would replace humans across the working world. Given the speed at which AI is advancing, and the emergence of technologies such as ChatGPT, this fear may seem reasonable. But over time, we’ve started to see AI as a helpful tool, not a replacement for humans. And just like any other tool, it can be used for good or bad. As a result, the real threat AI poses is not mass redundancies. It’s the pace at which malicious actors have exploited it to commit crime. To respond effectively, financial institutions need to fight fire with fire, using AI to limit the ability of lawbreakers to get away with their crimes. In doing so, it’s essential to balance the analytical prowess of AI and the nuanced understanding of humans. So what does this collaboration look like? Continue reading…

Basel Committee has published a consultation on guidelines for counterparty credit risk management. The proposed guidelines include key practices critical to resolving long-standing industry weaknesses in counterparty credit risk management. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision issued a consultative document on guidelines for counterparty credit risk (CCR) management. The proposed guidelines will replace the Committee’s Sound practices for banks’ interactions with highly leveraged institutions published in January 1999. Continue reading…

The European Commission has designated Apple with respect to iPadOS, its operating system for tablets, as a gatekeeper under the Digital Markets Act (“DMA”). Apple now has six months to ensure full compliance of iPadOS with the DMA obligations. On 5 September 2023, the Commission designated Apple as a gatekeeper for its operating system iOS, its browser Safari and its App Store. On the same day, the Commission opened a market investigation to assess whether Apple’s iPadOS, despite not meeting the quantitative thresholds laid down in the DMA, constitutes an important gateway for business users to reach end users and therefore should be designated as a gatekeeper.
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by Hans Timmerman

My first book in 1982 was about robots. About the robots entering the factory. How they could take over heavy and monotonous work in the factory as flexible, mechanical machines. Besides the interested companies for this industrial automation, the study also attracted the attention of journalists who were eager to hear when this type of robots would also start supporting us at home. At that time, however, the home robot was still a dream of the future. But with Apple’s announcement in recent weeks, it seems that future has come much closer. Over the past decades, robotic technology has become available in and around the home: robot mowers and vacuums that quietly and independently take over this boring work from us. Or the pet-like home robots like Amazon’s Astro, which can also watch over and guard the house when you’re away, or Sony’s robot dog Aibo. Finally, the serving robots that we see appearing in more and more hospitality establishments. The idea of robots in our homes and the service sector is not new. But with the advent of new AI speech capabilities, entirely new human communication and usage possibilities emerge. What can we expect in the coming years? Continue reading…

The world economy continues to show great resilience, and a soft landing seems increasingly likely. But strong labour markets pose a significant challenge for monetary policy as the natural interest rate is likely higher than previously assumed. In addition, the new geopolitical reality continues to pose a major risk to the growth and inflation outlook, says Helge Pedersen, Nordea Group Chief Economist. The Nordic economies are showing some divergence. Norway and Denmark are on solid footing, while Sweden is stabilising and expected to recover further when interest rates begin to fall. Economic growth has lost steam in Finland, which remains in a recession.
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The European Commission Executive Vice-President Margrethe Vestager, US Federal Trade Commission (‘FTC’) Chair Lina Khan and the Assistant Attorney General of the US Department of Justice Antitrust Division (‘DOJ’) Jonathan Kanter met in Washington for the fourth meeting of the EU-US Joint Technology Competition Policy Dialogue (‘TCPD’). The purpose of the dialogue is to further strengthen the cooperation to ensure and promote fair competition in the digital economy. Continue reading…

In a speech recently delivered, the Financial Conduct Authority’s (FCA) Chief Executive Nikhil Rathi announced the regulator’s plans to examine how Big Tech firms’ unique access to large sets of data could unlock better products, more competitive prices and wider choice for consumers and businesses. The speech at a Digital Regulation Cooperation Forum (DRCF) event outlined Nikhil Rathi’s focus on Big Tech as Chair of the DRCF, as well as the FCA’s response to the Government’s White Paper on Artificial Intelligence (AI), also published recently.
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by Giordano Di Veglia & Melania Franzese

Today the digital transformation acts as a driver of profitability of banking business models. The failure of strategic projects in most cases does not depend on strategic mistakes, but on difficulties in its implementation, which are often tragically underestimated. In other words, the analysis is correct, the solutions identified are right, but the bank has not adequately assessed its ability to implement the planned changes. Continue reading…

by Christine Lagarde

The Governing Council decided last week to keep the three key ECB interest rates unchanged. The incoming information has broadly confirmed our previous assessment of the medium-term inflation outlook. Inflation has continued to fall, led by lower food and goods price inflation. Most measures of underlying inflation are easing, wage growth is gradually moderating, and firms are absorbing part of the rise in labour costs in their profits. Financing conditions remain restrictive and our past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand, which is helping to push down inflation. But domestic price pressures are strong and are keeping services price inflation high. Continue reading…